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China melamine domestic market review in 2021/08 and outlook in 2021/09

Views:0     Author:Eastchem     Publish Time: 2021-09-06      Origin:Site

Melanie price

1. This month's market review 
  
1.1 Analysis of domestic melamine price trend 
  
In August, China's melamine market showed a slight downward trend after price increased at the beginning. The average ex-factory price of melamine products was 13,771 yuan/ton, up 1329 yuan/ton, or 10.68%, compared with the same period last month. Compared with the same period last year, up 8619 yuan/ton, or 167.29%. In early August, due to COVID-19, logistics and transportation were limited and some factories' shipments decreased. On the other hand, in the early and middle part of the month, the start-up rate dropped to a certain extent. Market  supply becomes tense again, manufacturer price tend to increase  . At first, it was only a small tentative increase, but as the price rises to stimulate the  downstream  industries to take goods, the market again appeared a situation of tight prices, the increase significantly expanded in the middle of the year, the highest price again exceeded 15500 yuan/ton. As the price continues to break through new highs, the downstream resistance increase significantly, the desire to take good become soften.   With the early orders have been put on the market, downstream  have more raw materials for use. In addition, some early-stage shut down manufacturers have resumed production, the supply of goods has increased, and the market supply and demand pattern tends to be relaxed. 
  
2. Market analysis and forecast for next month 
  
In terms of raw materials, the urea market in September as a whole will show a trend of falling first and then rising, and the price is still relatively high, so the cost support effect of melamine is still there. 
  
From the perspective of supply, the production rate  in early September is still maintained at about 80%, and some plants  are scheduled for maintenance in the middle and end  of September, so the production rate  will decline to a certain extent, and the overall level will still on high side. 
  
From the demand side, the second half of September is the beginning of the traditional peak  season, theoretically the downstream orders increased, the overall production level will be improved. In view of melamine price is high, to a certain extent restricts the downstream production enthusiasm. In addition, the export will still maintain a strong demand, foreign consumers have entered the peak season, so the purchase of melamine will tend to increase.   We  need to pay attention to the export transport vessel situation. Due to shipping tension, sea freight continues to rise in price, affecting some manufacturers shipment arrangements. 
  
The future will still depend  in the supply and demand situation.   Manufacturers continue to be in the midst of fulfilling previous orders couple with low inventory,  market once have  any  good news,  price  tend to be rebound. QINGDAO EASTHONY believe that there are a number of manufacturers plans to stop production in early September, market supply will be tight, the price will rise. At the end of September with the manufacturers have started production after the shut down , the market supply will be loosen, market correction is expected in October. 
  
In September, we need to focus on domestic shutdown and production of new capacity. In addition, India's anti-dumping duty exemption will also have a certain impact on the market. 


The above information is analyzed by QINGDAO EASTCHEM. For more information, please contact with us:
E-mail: pva@eastchem.cn
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